In an X (formerly Twitter) exchange Tuesday, prominent crypto analyst Mike Alfred stirred up excitement within the cryptocurrency community by asserting a 98.7% likelihood of the spot Bitcoin ETF gaining approval before the 10th of January.
“The Bitcoin spot ETF has a 98.7% chance of approval before January 10th, ” wrote Alfred, adding, “January call options for many BTC miners have been trading like there is no expectation of anything but normal volatility over the next month. How is Wall Street so asleep on this?”
The tweet garnered widespread agreement, including from pro-Ripple lawyer John Deaton, who enthusiastically responded by stating, “AGREED.”
Notably, in October, John E. Deaton, recognized for his representation of over 75,000 XRP investors in the SEC vs. Ripple case, had predicted a decisive approval for the spot Bitcoin ETF either by the close of the year or, at the latest, by the end of the first quarter of 2024.
This heightened optimism in the crypto sphere comes amid ongoing discussions and revised proposals from major players seeking approval for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. On Monday, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed an updated proposal for its iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF, incorporating cash creation and redemption mechanisms, the preferred model by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Initial proposals by various applicants have faced scrutiny from the SEC, raising concerns about investor safety and market manipulation. Notably, the SEC has been actively engaging with several ETF applicants recently, holding multiple meetings with firms such as Grayscale Investments, Fidelity Investments and Franklin Templeton.
Discussions during these meetings revolved around crucial issues, particularly the choice between in-kind and cash-creation models. While the SEC generally favours the latter for its perceived safety, BlackRock and other issuers have been advocating for in-kind creation. This method allows firms to redeem shares for Bitcoin held by their ETFs. To address regulatory concerns, BlackRock has proposed a revised in-kind model, a move closely watched by market participants awaiting the first wave of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.
That said, market speculation has been rife, with Bloomberg recently predicting a 90% chance of SEC approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs by January 10. There are 13 applications under consideration by the SEC, and industry leaders anticipate significant capital inflows and a notable price surge for Bitcoin following the approval of the much-anticipated product.