Online bettors on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket are predicting that US President Joe ***** will withdraw from the upcoming US elections after his spotty performance during the presidential debate against Donald *****.
Punters rate *****’s chances of dropping out of the races at 38 cents against 63 cents. The bet has attracted over $7 million worth of bets as of press time.
Similarly, forecasting startup Manifold shows a similar sentiment. The firm reports that the odds of ***** being the Democratic candidate for the forthcoming election plummeted to 68% from 94% within the past day.
Why are people betting on a ***** dropout?
The bettors’ actions on prediction markets reveal the extent of the reaction to *****’s performance at the first presidential debate.
Market experts noted that replacing ***** just months before the election is unprecedented in modern times and would be recently considered unthinkable. Yet, his debate performance has sparked many questions about his health and cognitive ability.
Demetri Sevastopulo, the US-China Correspondent for Financial Times, reported:
“Democratic lawmaker tells me a wide cross section of House Democrats were texting each other during the debate with same conclusion [of] ***** must dropout of the race. They are suggesting an open convention to excite voters.”
Who could replace *****?
Data from Polymarket indicates that bettors are speculating on potential candidates to replace *****. The “Democratic Nominee 2024” market on the site has drawn nearly $62 million in bets, with ***** still leading.
Interestingly, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds have risen to 15%, reflecting growing support. Newsom, a ***** supporter, praised the President’s debate performance.
Meanwhile, Michelle Obama, former US First Lady, has a 9% chance of being a contender, while *****’s Vice President Kamala Harris is also a strong possibility, with 8% odds.
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